What’s Next For NetApp Stock After Shedding 12% In The Past Month?

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NTAP
NetApp

NetApp Inc. stock (NASDAQ: NTAP) is down 10% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down almost 3% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -10% and -12%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. However, last week NetApp reported strong Q3 ’22 earnings (NetApp’s fiscal year ends in April), with revenue rising from $1.47 billion in Q3 ’21 to $1.61 billion in Q3 ’22. Further, a slower rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating margins rise from 17.6% to 19.9%, and combined with a lower effective tax rate, EPS rose from $0.82 in Q3 ’21 to $1.13 in Q3 ’22. Despite this, a lower-than-expected Q4 ’22 earnings guidance by the company, due to supply-chain headwinds, led to a sell-off in its stock.

Now, is NetApp stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is an average 51% chance of a rise in NetApp stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NTAP Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about NetApp’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see NetApp (NTAP) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about NetApp revenues and comparison to peers, see NetApp (NTAP) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: NTAP -10%, vs. S&P500 -2.7%; Underperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • NetApp stock dropped 10% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.7%
  • A change of -10% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 269 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 269 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 137 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NTAP -12%, vs. S&P500 -2%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 43% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • NetApp stock dropped 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2%
  • A change of -12% or more over ten trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 80 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 80 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 34 occasions
  • This points to a 43% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NTAP -10%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

  • NetApp stock fell 10% over a five-day trading period ending 3/2/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.1%
  • A change of -10% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 47 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 47 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 26 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NTAP Return 4% -11% 132%
 S&P 500 Return 1% -8% 96%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 1% -9% 257%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/2/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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