The shares of National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) have trended downward in recent weeks despite strong gains observed in benchmark prices. The U.S. rig count numbers remain 43% below pre-Covid levels and the EIA expects a slow improvement in the coming months as benchmark prices are likely to observe a correction – indicating top line contraction for National Oilwell Varco in 2021. The company provides equipment and technology services including drilling, completion, automation, etc, to the upstream oil & gas industry. According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price data, National Oilwell Varco stock is likely to move 3% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing -12.5% contraction in the past week (five trading days).
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding National Oilwell Varco stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test National Oilwell Varco stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
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IF NOV stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, NOV stock moves an average of 1.7 percent, with a 54.2% probability of a positive return over this period.
There is 54% probability of a positive return over the next twenty-one trading days and 46% probability of a positive excess return.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of National Oilwell Varco Stock Movements:
Consider two situations,
Case 1: National Oilwell Varco stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: National Oilwell Varco stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for National Oilwell Varco stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
NOV stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 1.6% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of -1.3% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how National Oilwell Varco stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold National Oilwell Varco stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For NOV stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
NOV’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for National Oilwell Varco stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
Are shares of upstream companies a better bet? EOG Resources Stock Comparison With Peers summarizes how EOG compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.