Micron Technology Stock Set To Extend Its Rally?

by Trefis Team
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Micron Technology
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Micron Technology stock (NASDAQ: MU) is up 12% in just one month (21 trading days), completely outperforming the S&P 500 which was up around 7%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 3.2% and 7.1%, respectively, thus having outperformed the market on both occasions. Micron reported strong full-year 2021 earnings at the end of September (Micron’s fiscal year ends in August), with revenue jumping to $27.7 billion from $21.4 billion in FY ’20, driven almost exclusively by a $5.5 billion rise in DRAM sales, which stood at $20 billion, making up approximately 72% of the company’s sales. With COGS and other operating expenses in check, operating income more than doubled to $6.28 billion in FY ’21. Combined with a drop in the effective tax rate, this helped drive Micron’s EPS to $5.23 from $2.42 over this period.

Now, is Micron stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a decent 64% chance of a rise in Micron Technology stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MU Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about MU historical returns and comparison to peers, see Micron Technology (MU) Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: MU 12%, vs. S&P500 6.6%; Outperformed market

(22% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • MU stock increased 12% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 6.6%
  • A change of 12% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 546 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 546 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 349 occasions
  • This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MU 7.1%, vs. S&P500 1.2%; Outperformed market

(26% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • MU stock increased 7.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.2%
  • A change of 7.1% or more over ten trading days is a 26% likelihood event, which has occurred 653 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 653 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 350 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MU 3.2%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Outperformed market

(34% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)

  • MU stock increased 3.2% over a five-day trading period ending 11/11/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.7%
  • A change of 3.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 865 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 865 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 462 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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