Match Group Stock Gained 1% In One Week, Where Is It Headed?

MTCH: Match Group logo
MTCH
Match Group

Match Group stock (NASDAQ: MTCH) has gained 1.2% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.5%). However, the opposite trend was observed over the last ten days (-2.1% vs -0.6%) and a one-month period (-18% vs -6.5%). Notably, the stock lost 69% in 2022. The negative investor sentiment was because of several management changes, the negative impact of foreign exchange movements, and a slowdown in revenue growth.   

The company is the owner of Match.com, Tinder, Hinge, and other online dating properties. It posted mixed third-quarter results, with revenues beating expectations but earnings missing the consensus. The top line increased just 1% y-o-y to $810 million, as the growth suffered due to lower revenues from the APAC region and a decrease in indirect revenues. Further, the firm provided a revenue outlook of $780-$790 million for Q4, which is lower than the year-ago figure.

Now, is Match Group stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 54% chance of a rise in Match Group stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Match Group Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: MTCH -18%, vs. S&P500 -6.5%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Match Group stock lost 18% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.5%
  • A change of -18% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 109 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 109 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 59 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MTCH -2.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.6%; Underperformed market

(less than 35% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Match Group stock decreased 2.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) loss of 0.6%
  • A change of -2.1% or more over ten trading days is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 887 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 887 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 468 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MTCH 1.2%, vs. S&P500 -0.5%; Outperformed market

(45% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Match Group stock gained 1.2% over a five-day trading period ending 01/03/2023, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 0.5%
  • A change of 1.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 45% likelihood event, which has occurred 1123 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1123 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 567 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2023
MTD [1]
2023
YTD [1]
2017-23
Total [2]
 MTCH Return -1% -1% 152%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 0% 71%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% 0% 214%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/4/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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