What to Expect from ArcelorMittal’s Third Quarter Results

by Trefis Team
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ArcelorMittal
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ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) will announce its third quarter results before the market opens on 10th Nov, 2017 and will conduct a conference call with analysts the same day. [1] The company is expected to deliver strong results owing to favorable business conditions in the steel industry. Our expectation from the upcoming results are summarized below.

The company will benefit in the form of higher average price realizations due to the capacity shutdowns enforced in China. These capacity cuts are intended to control the level of pollution in the Chinese economy. Total Chinese steel production was down by 3.7% in Sept ’17 in comparison to Aug ’16 and there are further expectations that  production would be cut by an additional 30 million tons this winter. [2] Such material supply cuts would have a significant impact on the global state of steel surplus and put an upward pressure on prices as demand remains constant.

Price realization from the European division is most likely to benefit from the strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar in the past quarter, coupled with improving macro economic conditions in the European region. The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased its 2017 growth forecast to 2.2% after displaying consistent performance since the beginning of the year. [3] This would have a positive impact on ArcelorMittal’s European division which contributes roughly 30% to the company’s top line.

Furthermore, improved iron ore pricing environment due to similar supply dynamics as that for steel would benefit the company’s mining division on achieving better margins and would also have an negative impact to a certain extent on the raw material cost for steel production.

As per the latest statistic released by the World Steel Association, demand for steel is to grow by 4.9% in North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and 2.5% in the European Union for 2017. [4] This is in line with the company’s revised forecast for global steel demand by 200 basis point as per its Q2 2017 guidelines. [5] A favorable demand outlook, on the other hand, would boost global steel prices and enable the company to benefit from improved pricing and sales volume.

We have $ 27 price estimate for ArcelorMittal which is 8% below its current market price.

Have more questions about ArcelorMittal? See the links below.

Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com
2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for ArcelorMittal

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Notes:
  1. Financial Calendar, ArcelorMittal Website []
  2. Global steel output lowest since Feb. as China smog war intensifies, Reuters []
  3. Eurozone growth exceeds expectations, BBC News []
  4. Short Range Outlook 2017-2018, World Steel Association []
  5. ArcelorMittal’s (MT) CEO Lakshmi Mittal on Q2 2017 Results – Earnings Call Transcript, Seeking Alpha []
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