More Upside For Microsoft Stock?

by Trefis Team
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Microsoft’s stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) has risen 3.1% over the last 5 trading days, as major technology and software companies reported earnings in the past week. For Q2 FY 2021 (ended December 2020) Microsoft beat consensus for revenues at $43.08 billion and earnings at $2.05. The market reacted positively to the technology and software company’s results.

The above factors have been responsible for a 3.1% rise in Microsoft’s stock in a week. In comparison, the broader S&P 500 fell by 0.5% over the last 5 trading days. Now, is Microsoft’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 62% chance of a rise in Microsoft’s stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last 5 years. See our analysis on Microsoft Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: MSFT 3.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.5%; Outperformed market

(18% likelihood event)

  • Microsoft stock rose 3.1% over a 5-day trading period ending 2/2/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.5%
  • A change of 3.1% or more over 5 trading days is a 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 229 times out of 1256 in the last 5 years

10D: MSFT 11%, vs. S&P500 0.8%; Outperformed market

(12% likelihood event)

  • Microsoft stock rose 11% over the last 10 trading days (2 weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.8%
  • A change of 11% or more over 10 trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 151 times out of 1240 in the last 5 years

21D: MSFT 7.7%, vs. S&P500 2%; Outperformed market

(7% likelihood event)

  • Microsoft stock rose 7.7% the last 21 trading days (1 month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.0%
  • A change of 7.7% or more over 21 trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 85 times out of 1198 in the last 5 years

While Microsoft’s stock may continue to grow, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Amazon vs Etsy.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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