How Will Marvell Technology Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

May 23rd, 2026 by Trefis Team
MRVL: Marvell Technology logo
MRVL
Marvell Technology

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. The company has $169 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.7 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Trefis: MRVL Stock Insights

Marvell Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
  • Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 8 positive returns = 13%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -6.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Forward Returns
Earnings Date 1D 5D 21D
3/5/2026 18.4% 15.8% 44.7%
12/2/2025 7.9% -4.3% -2.9%
8/28/2025 -18.6% -18.0% 6.7%
5/29/2025 -5.6% 2.2% 21.4%
3/5/2025 -19.8% -22.5% -38.3%
12/3/2024 23.2% 11.2% 23.2%
8/29/2024 9.2% -5.2% 3.3%
5/30/2024 -10.5% -11.4% -7.6%
3/7/2024 -11.4% -22.3% -15.5%
11/30/2023 -5.3% -6.4% 4.4%
8/24/2023 -6.6% 1.7% -8.1%
5/25/2023 32.4% 21.6% 22.5%
3/2/2023 -4.7% -11.5% -6.3%
12/1/2022 -1.5% -8.1% -20.7%
8/25/2022 -8.9% -16.6% -22.7%
5/26/2022 6.7% 3.5% -20.5%
3/3/2022 -2.7% 0.1% 9.0%
12/2/2021 17.7% 26.7% 25.9%
8/26/2021 -3.0% -3.0% -0.3%
6/7/2021 5.1% 11.5% 17.4%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive 8 9 10
# Negative 12 11 10
Median Positive 13.4% 11.2% 19.4%
Median Negative -6.1% -11.4% -11.8%
Max Positive 32.4% 26.7% 44.7%
Max Negative -19.8% -22.5% -38.3%

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

History 1D_5D 1D_21D 5D_21D
5Y History -18.1% -1.8% 7.9%
3Y History -43.7% -6.6% 22.8%

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Marvell Technology stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Marvell Technology. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

1D Return Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return
MRVL Earnings Dates MRVL NVDA AMD QCOM INTC
3/5/2026 18.4% -6.2% N/A* -7.4% N/A*
12/2/2025 7.9% -2.7% -13.9% -5.0% N/A*
8/28/2025 -18.6% -0.8% -3.3% 1.1% N/A*
5/29/2025 -5.6% 3.2% 14.6% -0.1% N/A*
3/5/2025 -19.8% -10.6% -14.9% -9.9% N/A*
12/3/2024 23.2% -3.9% N/A* -6.0% N/A*
8/29/2024 9.2% -6.4% N/A* -6.3% -30.3%
5/30/2024 -10.5% 16.4% N/A* 25.3% N/A*
3/7/2024 -11.4% 37.4% N/A* N/A* N/A*
11/30/2023 -5.3% -6.4% N/A* 17.1% N/A*
8/24/2023 -6.6% 0.1% -13.4% -16.1% -5.3%
5/25/2023 32.4% 24.4% 33.9% -7.8% -7.9%
3/2/2023 -4.7% 12.3% N/A* -8.3% N/A*
12/1/2022 -1.5% 7.7% N/A* 13.4% N/A*
8/25/2022 -8.9% 0.7% -2.1% -4.7% -11.3%
5/26/2022 6.7% 5.2% 8.4% -0.2% -6.4%
3/3/2022 -2.7% -10.5% N/A* -11.8% N/A*
12/2/2021 17.7% 9.8% N/A* 28.3% N/A*
8/26/2021 -3.0% 15.9% N/A* -0.0% N/A*
6/7/2021 5.1% 12.2% N/A* N/A* N/A*
CORRELATION 27.3% -6.7% 13.7% 15.2%

* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MRVL

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