What’s Next For Mirati Therapeutics Stock After A 20% Rise In A Month?
Mirati Therapeutics stock (NASDAQ: MRTX) has risen a solid 20% in a month, outperforming the broader markets with the S&P500 down 6%. The recent rally in MRTX stock was led by its positive findings from an early-stage clinical trial of Adagrasib, a treatment for patients with lung cancer harboring the KRAS mutation. The results from clinical trials show a significant 84% disease control rate. [1] The drug is expected to be approved by the U.S. by the end of this year as a second-line treatment for KRAS-mutated non-small cell lung cancer. The peak sales for Adagrasib are estimated to be over $1.5 billion. Mirati’s total revenues were $72 million in 2021, with the primary source being licenses and collaboration.
Now that MRTX stock has seen a rise of 20% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of a rise for Mirati stock over the next month. Of 439 instances in the last ten years that MRTX stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 20% or more, 275 resulted in MRTX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 275 out of 439, or about a 63% chance of a rise in MRTX stock over the next month. See our analysis of Mirati Therapeutics Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving 27% or more over five days, the stock rose on 29% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving 18% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 43% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving 20% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 63% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
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This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in MRTX stock over the next month, but it may cool off in the next five and ten days.
Mirati Therapeutics (MRT) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: MRSN highest at 31.9%; GBT lowest at 11.4%
- Ten-Day Return: MRSN highest at 49.7%; ALLK lowest at 9.2%
- Twenty-One Day Return: MRSN highest at 52.0%; GTHX lowest at 17.4%
While MRTX stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for FedEx vs. Amkor.
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| Returns | Jun 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 YTD [1] |
2017-22 Total [2] |
| MRTX Return | 78% | -53% | 1367% |
| S&P 500 Return | -6% | -18% | 74% |
| Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio | -3% | -22% | 207% |
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/28/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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- Mirati Therapeutics Press Release, Jun 6, 2022 [↩]