With no immediate material signs of further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, benchmark oil prices along with natural gas, and other commodities observed a correction in recent days. Subsequently, the shares of Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) fell from the highs of $28. The company is engaged in exploration and production of oil & natural gas in the Eagle Ford, Bakken, STACK, and SCOOP regions in the U.S. Per Q1 filings, the company raised its annual adjusted free cash flow target from $3 billion to $4.5 billion given the strength in benchmark prices. According to our Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, MRO stock has a 49% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Marathon Oil Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Is This Stock A Better Pick Over Occidental Petroleum?)
Five Days: MRO -3%, vs. S&P 500 -3.9%; Outperformed market (26% event probability)
- MRO stock declined 3% over a five-day trading period ending 5/10/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 3.9% over the same period.
- Returns of -3% or lower over a five-day period on 654 occasions out of 2516 (26%); Stock rose in the next five days in 331 of these 654 instances (51%).
Ten Days: MRO 0.2%, vs. S&P 500 -7.1%; Outperformed market (51% event probability)
- MRO stock gained 0.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 7.1%.
- Returns of 0.2% or higher over 10-day period on 1282 occasions out of 2516 (51%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 692 of these 1282 instances (54%).
Twenty-One Days: MRO -2.9%, vs. S&P 500 -11%; Outperformed market (37% event probability)
- MRO stock lost 2.9% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 11%.
- Returns of -2.9% or lower over 21-day period on 929 occasions out of 2516 (37%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 457 of these 929 instances (49%).
|S&P 500 Return||-3%||-16%||78%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-7%||-23%||205%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/10/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016