What Is The Case For Waiting On Moderna Stock?

Moderna (MRNA) stock has gained 282.6% over the past three months, outpacing a 4.1% return for the S&P 500. The shares reached their highest close in a year on October 15, 2026, ending the session at $236.50. Investors paying that premium are betting the drugmaker is ready to grow again. To meet those expectations, its sales, nearly all from COVID vaccines, have to stop shrinking, while its newer vaccines and cancer drugs have to start selling. Has the business caught up with Moderna’s share price yet?

Most of that gain came on August 19, when Moderna and Merck reported that their personalized cancer treatment, intismeran, met its goals in a Phase 3 melanoma trial. The shares nearly tripled that day. Detailed results are due at a medical meeting on October 24. The treatment is not yet approved, and Moderna would share its profits equally with Merck

Moderna Stock Costs Over 40 Times Sales

Not yet. At current levels, Moderna trades at 42.6 times the company’s revenue over the past twelve months, compared with 3.1 times for the S&P 500. The company operated at a loss over that period, so it has no meaningful price-to-earnings multiple.

The underlying business used to be much larger. Moderna generated $2.21 billion in sales in the twelve months through June 2026, a sharp decline from the $22.3 billion it recorded in the twelve months through June 2022. During that peak period, the company turned 70.2% of its sales into operating profit. Over the latest twelve months, however, it lost $3.32 billion on its operations.

Sales have begun to recover. Revenue increased from a year earlier in both quarters Moderna has reported for 2026. Management still expects full-year revenue to grow up to 10%, a forecast it notes allows for further declines in COVID vaccination rates. In its first season, Moderna’s newer COVID shot, mNEXSPIKE, captured about 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market, management said in July.

Most of the year’s sales have yet to be reported. In 2025, the third and fourth quarters brought in $1.68 billion of the $1.92 billion Moderna sold. Even growth of 10% would put 2026 sales at about $2.1 billion, falling short of the $2.21 billion generated over the past twelve months. Current share prices appear to assume sales from products beyond COVID.

Are Moderna’s Newer Products Selling Yet?

Only in small amounts. Moderna’s RSV vaccine brought in $8 million in 2025, down 68% from 2024. The company has signed a joint procurement contract with the European Commission to supply up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA. mCOMBRIAX, its flu and COVID combination vaccine, was approved in the EU in April. Moderna plans to launch it in 2027 and excludes it from its 2026 forecast. In the U.S., Moderna is waiting for approval of its stand-alone flu vaccine before seeking FDA guidance on refiling the combination. For now, Moderna’s products beyond COVID offer contracts and regulatory approvals, but little in actual sales.

Moderna Reports Third-Quarter Results On November 6

Moderna will release its third-quarter 2026 results on Friday, November 6, 2026. Management said in July that third-quarter revenue should account for about 55% of second-half revenue. The upcoming report will provide an initial look at the seasonal period that generated the bulk of last year’s sales.

During the two trading days following each of Moderna’s last six reports, the company’s shares rose five times. They climbed by as much as 10.3% after the February 2026 report. The stock fell just once over that stretch, slipping by 0.5% after the August 2025 report.

Buying at a one-year high also means holding a stock that has fallen much further than the market in past shocks. Moderna fell 50% during the 2022 inflation shock, against 24% for the S&P 500.

Moderna’s revenue is growing again, but its newer vaccines and cancer drugs have yet to sell in size. On November 6, third-quarter revenue, against management’s forecast of growth up to 10% for the year, will be the primary figure to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On MRNA?

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