Where Could Moderna’s Next Growth Come From?
Moderna (MRNA) stock has returned 621% over the past twelve months, easily outpacing the S&P 500’s 17.0% return. Yet the company’s sales have fallen for three consecutive years, and nearly all of that revenue still comes from COVID vaccines. This divergence suggests investors are placing heavy bets on a product Moderna does not sell yet. So what is Moderna getting ready to sell, and how far along is it?
Moderna Is Preparing For A Potential Cancer Therapy Launch
The centerpiece of that future pipeline is intismeran autogene, an investigational cancer therapy Moderna is developing jointly with Merck. In its Phase 3 study, the treatment is administered alongside Keytruda, Merck’s own cancer drug, to patients who have had melanoma removed by surgery.
The clinical program has advanced since the summer. On its July 31, 2026 earnings call, management noted that the Phase 3 melanoma study was fully enrolled and awaiting results. On August 19, 2026, Moderna and Merck announced that the trial had met its main goals, and Moderna has said it is preparing for a potential launch. The underlying data is scheduled for presentation on October 24.
Moderna is already building out the manufacturing needed for a launch. To support a potential rollout, the company is setting up manufacturing operations at a dedicated plant in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the broader clinical program spans 9 Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies. Because the therapy remains investigational, however, it is not yet on sale.
Moderna Sells Little Besides COVID Vaccines Today
Over the last twelve months, Moderna generated $2.2 billion in revenue, a decline from $3.1 billion in the prior twelve-month period. Because COVID vaccines made up 93% of revenue in fiscal 2025, the business remains heavily dependent on a single product line. Performance steadied slightly in the most recent reporting period, as second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $145 million, up about 2% from $142 million a year earlier.
Management expects revenue to grow by up to 10% in 2026 from 2025’s $1.9 billion. On a base that small, any commercially successful new product would quickly become a visible part of revenue.
The current share price suggests investors have already priced in much of this pipeline success. Moderna trades at a market value of 40.5 times its sales, compared with a multiple of 3.1 times for the broader S&P 500. As of October 8, the stock sat 3.2% below its 52-week high.
What Has To Go Right For Moderna
For this valuation to hold, the new therapy must successfully launch and secure a market. Analysts at Citi downgraded the stock to Sell on September 30, 2026, arguing that the share price already assumes the therapy succeeds across several cancer types.
Moderna continues to lose money while it waits, posting a loss of $3.2 billion over the last twelve months. The company held cash and investments of $6.9 billion at the end of the second quarter. Management projects those reserves will fall to $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion at the end of 2026. Part of that anticipated drop is a $950 million litigation settlement Moderna paid in July.
Melanoma represents only the first potential application for the therapy. During the July 31 call, management stated that the kidney cancer study could be ready for analysis in 2026 or 2027. Data regarding bladder cancer is more likely to arrive in 2027. However, the company cautioned that the timing for both remains difficult to predict.
The next critical milestone is October 24, 2026. On that day, Phase 3 melanoma data will be presented at the ESMO Congress in Madrid, and Moderna will host an investor event later that day. The clinical study compares patients given intismeran alongside Keytruda against a control group receiving Keytruda alone. Demonstrating a clear advantage for patients given both drugs over those given Keytruda alone would back up the results Moderna has characterized as positive.
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