What’s Happening With Monolithic Power Systems Stock?

MPWR: Monolithic Power Systems logo
Monolithic Power Systems

Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ:MPWR), a company that sells semiconductor-based power electronics solutions to the computing, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer industries has seen its stock rally by 12% over the last month and also remains up by close to 5% over the last week. The rally comes as the company posted a stronger-than-expected set of Q3 2022 results last month with revenue rising by 53% year-over-year, and gross margins actually expanding by about 110 basis points, despite the current weakness in the semiconductor market. Moreover, the stock is also being viewed favorably by multiple brokerages. Separately, MPWR is also expected to benefit considerably from the transition to electric vehicles and the growing semiconductor content in the automotive industry. Electric vehicle deliveries in the U.S. rose by 69% year-over-year in Q3 2022, despite the broader light vehicle market remaining roughly flat.

Now that Monolithic stock has seen gains of about 12% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly 60% chance of a rise in Monolithic stock over the next month. Out of 327 instances in the last ten years when Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 12% or more 195 of those instances resulted in MPWR stock rising over the subsequent one-month period. This historical pattern reflects 195 out of 327, or about a 60% chance of rise in Monolithic Power Systems stock over the next month, implying a reasonably positive near-term outlook for Monolithic stock. See our analysis on  Monolithic Power Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years data

  • After moving 1% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 59% of the occasions.
  • After moving 5% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 59% of the occasions
  • After moving 12% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 60% of the occasions.
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This pattern suggests that it is moderately likely that Monolithic stock should see gains in the near term.

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Returns Dec 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 MPWR Return 1% -22% 371%
 S&P 500 Return -4% -17% 76%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% -20% 216%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/10/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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