How Will McCormick Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
McCormick (NYSE:MKC) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, June 25, 2026. The company has $12 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.1 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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McCormick’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 56% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 6 positive returns = 4.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -5.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/22/2026 | -8.1% | -7.1% | 2.9% |
| 10/7/2025 | -3.9% | -4.3% | -5.6% |
| 6/26/2025 | 5.3% | 4.0% | -2.2% |
| 1/23/2025 | 2.1% | 5.0% | 9.4% |
| 10/1/2024 | 2.2% | -3.0% | -5.4% |
| 6/27/2024 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 12.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| 10/3/2023 | -8.5% | -15.0% | -14.0% |
| 6/29/2023 | -5.5% | -6.7% | -1.8% |
| 1/26/2023 | -5.8% | -3.0% | -3.8% |
| 9/7/2022 | -6.7% | -6.6% | -14.8% |
| 6/29/2022 | -1.4% | -3.9% | 1.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | 6.8% | 10.6% | 4.6% |
| 9/30/2021 | -3.2% | -4.1% | -2.6% |
| 7/1/2021 | -0.4% | -1.4% | -4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -4.2% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.8% | 10.6% | 12.7% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -15.0% | -14.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 25.4% | -12.0% | -3.5% |
| 3Y History | 18.1% | -18.1% | -10.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of McCormick stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before McCormick. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| MKC Earnings Dates | MKC | SJM |
| 6/26/2025 | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| 6/27/2024 | 4.3% | -5.8% |
| 6/29/2023 | -5.5% | 0.1% |
| 9/7/2022 | -6.7% | -1.0% |
| 6/29/2022 | -1.4% | 0.3% |
| CORRELATION | -53.4% |
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