How Does Medtronic’s Diabetes Care Business Compare To Its Peers?

Medtronic’s (NYSE:MDT) diabetes care business could grow in high-single-digits from $2.4 billion in fiscal 2019 to $2.8 billion in fiscal 2021, according to Trefis estimates. This growth will likely be led by expansion of MiniMed product line in international markets, and continued demand in the U.S. In this analysis, we compare Medtronic’s growth in diabetes care business vis-à-vis its primary competitors and provide an outlook of the future course of business. You can view our interactive dashboard analysis ~ How Does Medtronic’s Diabetes Care Business Compare To Its Peers? ~ for more details. In addition, you can see more of our data for Healthcare companies here.

Medtronic’s Diabetes Care Business Has Grown At A Faster Pace Than That of Abbott’s And Roche’s But Slower Than That of DexCom

• Medtronic’s diabetes care sales grew at an average annual rate of 8.0% from $1.8 billion in fiscal 2015 to $2.4 billion in fiscal 2019.
• This compares with Roche’s average annual decline of 6.1% from $2.6 billion in 2014 to $2.0 billion in 2018.
• Abbott’s estimated diabetes care revenue grew at a CAGR of 7.4% from $1.6 billion in 2014 to $2.0 billion in 2018.
• DexCom saw the fastest growth with sales growing at a CAGR of 42.0% from $257 million in 2014 to north of $1 billion in 2018.

Medtronic’s Share In Diabetes Care Market Has Been Stable, And It Would Likely Remain So In The Coming Years

• Combined diabetes care revenues for Medtronic, DexCom, Roche, and Abbott grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from $6.1 billion in 2014 to $7.2 billion in 2018.
• Medtronic’s share has grown from around 27% in 2014 to 30% in 2018, as it saw growth at a faster pace than the overall market during the same period.
• Looking forward, Medtronic should be able to hold to its 30% share over the next few years, led by continued growth in its MiniMed systems.

Medtronic’s Diabetes Care Sales Could Grow In High Single-Digits In The Near Term

• Medtronic’s diabetes care sales could grow from $2.4 billion in fiscal 2019 to $2.8 billion in fiscal 2021.
• This growth will primarily be led by its MiniMed 670G hybrid closed loop system, and Guardian Connect, which are seeing strong demand in the U.S., and the company is expanding the products in international markets.
• 670G is the world’s first hybrid closed loop system that optimizes glycemic control for patients with type 1 diabetes.
• Guardian Connect is a continuous glucose monitoring system designed for people on insulin injections. It can be connected with apps on mobile phones and predict and alert about highs and lows of glucose levels. The company expects it to be a long term revenue stream.

Diabetes Is A Relatively Smaller Revenue Stream For Medtronic With Only 8% Contribution To The Company’s Top Line

• Medtronic’s diabetes revenues accounted for 10% of the company’s total revenues in fiscal 2014.
• The figure declined to 6.5% in fiscal 2016, but grew thereafter to 7.8% in fiscal 2019.
• It should continue to grow to over 8.5% by 2021, in our view. This can be attributed to faster expected growth in the company’s diabetes sales, as compared to its overall sales.
• However, Guardian Connect competes with the likes of DexCom’s G5, and Abbott’s popular FreeStyle Libre CGMs.

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