Can McDonald’s See An Upturn Post Coronavirus Crisis?

by Trefis Team
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As per Trefis analysis, it is likely that McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) stock could bounce back strongly as the crisis winds down. The company’s stock has taken a big hit, falling by about 14% from March 8-12, 2020, as the broader S&P 500 fell by over 16.5%. The stock was down by a total of over 20% since early February through Thursday. Our expectation of the company’s stock outperforming the broader market is based on our detailed interactive dashboard ‘2007-08 vs. 2020 Crisis Comparison: McDonald’s Stock vs. the S&P 500.

There are two broad trends driving the ongoing sell-off which has affected companies across industries. Firstly, the increasing number of coronavirus cases across the world is raising concerns about a global economic slowdown. Secondly, crude oil prices plummeted by more than 20% after Saudi Arabia launched an all-out price war by boosting production in a bid to gain market share. In this analysis, we compare the performance of McDonald’s to the S&P 500 over the current crisis and the economic crisis of 2007-08 to take a look at where the stock could be headed.


McDonald’s Stock Vs. S&P 500 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis

  • McDonald’s stock declined by about 14.2% since March 8, 2020 (through March 12) and the stock is down by about 20% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency.
  • The S&P 500 declined by 16.5% since March 8, 2020 and has fallen by 25% since February 1, after the global health emergency was declared by the WHO.


McDonald’s Stock vs. S&P 500 Performance 2007-08 Financial Crisis

  • McDonald’s was nearly flat as it moved from around $37.80 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $37.60 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and went up to levels of about $46 in early 2010.
  • Through the crisis, McDonald’s stock declined slightly by 0.6% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a much slower decline than the S&P which fell by as much as 51%.
  • Further, the stock went up strongly, rising by 22% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P rose by about 48% over the same period.


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