A 10-Day Winning Streak Has Marriott International Stock Up 13%
Marriott International (MAR) stock has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, gaining 13.3% over that stretch. That added about $12.5 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $106.6 billion. The stock closed at $404.00 on Wednesday, October 21, its highest close of the past year.
How The Streak Stacks Up Against The S&P 500
Returns for MAR and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Wednesday, October 21 and including dividends:
| Return Period | MAR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 10 Days (Current Streak) | 13.3% | -0.5% |
| 1 Month (21 Trading Days) | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 Months (63 Trading Days) | 11.1% | 5.0% |
| Year To Date | 31.0% | 14.4% |
| 1 Year (252 Trading Days) | 56.7% | 16.5% |
A Stock-Specific Run, Or A Market Move?
The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 0.5% over the same 10 sessions, including dividends, against Marriott International’s +13.3%. 1 other S&P 500 stock is currently on winning streaks of 10 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is up 11.1%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 53 sessions of that window it was essentially flat (-2.0%).
Do The Fundamentals Support The Run?
On the fundamentals, revenue grew 4.7% over the last twelve months, against a median of 7.3% for S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary stocks; its operating margin is 15.7%, versus a median of 15.4%; and the stock trades at 41.2 times trailing earnings against a median of 19.3. The numbers make the run harder to justify: revenue growth below the median and a multiple well above the median. At this price, the stock is asking a lot of the business.
A climb like this is worth respecting, and worth testing. Our Guidance Momentum screen tracks the stocks whose companies just raised their own forward numbers.
For anyone who would rather back the theme than one company, a consumer discretionary ETF like XLY holds the whole group, not just this stock. It is still a concentrated bet on one theme, which is the gap the portfolio below is built to close.
One Hot Stock Is A Story. Thirty Sound Ones Are A Strategy
A streak like this earns a place on your watchlist, and it also earns a question: how much of your outcome do you want depending on one company keeping this up?
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio answers it with breadth: roughly 30 businesses picked for consistent cash generation, strong margins, and balance-sheet strength, sized and rebalanced by rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Follow the story; invest in the strategy.