Will Southwest Airlines Stock Gain Momentum In The Near-Term?

+84.07%
Upside
32.05
Market
58.99
Trefis
LUV: Southwest Airlines logo
LUV
Southwest Airlines

The shares of Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) have observed an uptick in recent weeks largely assisted by strong domestic travel demand. Per the short-term energy outlook by EIA, benchmark oil prices are likely to trend downward during the latter half of the year, but uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine war remains. However, Southwest Airlines’ bottom line is unlikely to observe a dent from high fuel prices for a couple of quarters as the company has a hedge position on almost 60% of the targeted fuel consumption for 2022.  Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyses historical stock price movements, LUV stock has a 60% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Southwest Airlines Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: LUV 12%, vs. S&P 500 -2.1%; Outperformed market (1% event probability)

  • LUV stock gained 12% over a five-day trading period ending 04/19/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 2.1% over the same period.
  • Returns of 12% or higher over a five-day period on 35 occasions out of 2516 (1%); Stock rose in the next five days in 14 of these 35 instances (40%).
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Ten Days: LUV 0.8%, vs. S&P 500 -3.3%; Outperformed market (50% event probability)

  • LUV stock gained 0.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 3.3%.
  • Returns of 0.8% or higher over 10-day period on 1246 occasions out of 2515 (50%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 761 of these 1246 instances (61%).

Twenty-One Days: LUV 8.1%, vs. S&P 500 -0.7%; Outperformed market (23% event probability)

  • LUV stock gained 8.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was relatively flat.
  • Returns of 8.1% or higher over 21-day period on 576 occasions out of 2515 (23%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 346 of these 576 instances (60%).

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Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 LUV Return 1% 8% -7%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -8% 96%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% -10% 253%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/19/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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