Lincoln National Corporation Stock Lost 36% In One Week, What’s Next?

LNC: Lincoln National logo
LNC
Lincoln National

Lincoln National Corporation’s stock (NYSE: LNC) has lost 36% in the last week, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (down 3.3%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-32% vs 0.6%) and one month period (-28% vs 0.8%). 

The firm is an American holding company that operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses. It reported third-quarter results last week, with earnings missing the consensus estimates by a huge margin. The net income decreased from $318 million to -$2.6 billion driven by lower revenues and higher expenses. The expenses figure primarily increased due to an unfavorable unlocking driven by updates to policyholder behavior assumptions in the life insurance segment. Overall, the weak Q3 results were the main reason behind the negative stock movement.

Now, is LNC stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is an 88% chance of a rise in LNC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Lincoln National Corporation’s Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: LNC -28%, vs. S&P500 0.8%; Underperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 88% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Lincoln National Corporation stock lost 28% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 0.8%
  • A change of -28% or more over twenty-one trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 25 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 25 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 22 occasions
  • This points to a 88% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: LNC -32%, vs. S&P500 0.6%; Underperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Lincoln National Corporation stock decreased 32% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 0.6%
  • A change of -32% or more over ten trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 13 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 13 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 8 occasions
  • This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Five Day: LNC -36%, vs. S&P500 -3.3%; Underperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Lincoln National Corporation stock lost 36% over a five-day trading period ending 11/04/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 3.3%
  • A change of -36% or more over five trading days (one week) is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 4 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 4 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on two occasion
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 LNC Return -36% -50% -48%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -21% 68%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -4% -25% 195%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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