Kohl’s stock (NYSE: KSS), a department store that features apparel, footwear, accessories, soft home products, and housewares targeted to middle-income customers, has increased by 15% over the last five trading days (one week) and currently stands at around $31. There was no particular news on which the stock saw gains, but KSS stock has, in general, been volatile through this year, due to prevailing macr0 headwinds. Last week, Walmart (NYSE : WMT) announced that it expects lower earnings through the second half of 2022, mainly because inflation is impacting consumers’ behavior. Kohl’s stock plunged around 15% after that announcement sent shockwaves through the retail industry, but seems to have recovered from that fall over the last five days. It wasn’t a good start for Kohl’s in 2022 – with comparable-store sales declining 5%. Since challenges with supply chain issues and too much inventory still remain prevalent in Q2, investors are concerned Kohl’s will also lower its outlook once again when it announces its second-quarter results on August 18. It is quite likely that the company will see a period of weaker earnings in the upcoming quarter results as investors grow more concerned about slowing consumer spending patterns.
Is KSS stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a only 47% chance of a rise in KSS stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of KSS’ Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data
 Returns of 15% or higher over five-day period on 56 occasions out of 2515 (2%); Stock rose in the next five days in 25 of these 56 instances (45%)
 Returns of 2.3% or higher over ten-day period on 963 occasions out of 2515 (38%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 468 of these 963 instances (49%)
 Returns of 5.7% or higher over twenty-one-day period on 687 occasions out of 2515 (27%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 323 of these 687 instances (47%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. KSS Peers shows how Kohl’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Kohl’s stock has fallen 37% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can KSS stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||1%||-13%||86%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||4%||-10%||253%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/4/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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