Will The Gains Continue For Johnson & Johnson Stock After A 7% Rise In A Month?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has seen a rise of over 7% over the last twenty-one trading days, and it is also up 15% year-to-date. Note that such a move for JNJ stock is uncommon, and it has occurred less than 90 times over the last 10 years. The company reported upbeat Q2 results and it continues to benefit from market share gains for some of its key drugs, including Imbruvica and Darzalex. Furthermore, a rebound in volume of elective surgeries performed has boded well for its medical devices business in the recent past, a trend expected to continue in the near term. The company also raised its full-year outlook, bolstering its stock price growth.

But now that JNJ stock has moved 7% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a decline in JNJ stock over the next month. Out of 88 instances in the last ten years that JNJ stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 7.5% or more, 51 of them resulted in JNJ stock falling over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 51 out of 88, or about a 58% chance of a decline in JNJ stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Johnson & Johnson Stock Chances of Decline for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 3.3% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 53% of the occasions.
  • After moving 2.9% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 54% of the occasions
  • After moving 7.5% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days only on 42% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Return: AI Predicts JNJ Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500

  • Five-Day Return: MRK highest at 4.8%; SPY lowest at 0.3%
  • Ten-Day Return: PFE highest at 10%; BMY lowest at -0.5%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: PFE highest at 26%; MRK lowest at 2.3%

Going by historical performance, while JNJ stock can see lower levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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