A Look At Johnson & Johnson’s Late Stage Pharmaceuticals Pipeline

by Trefis Team
Johnson & Johnson
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Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has a strong late stage pharmaceuticals pipeline, and it could be worth as much as $20 billion, or over 5% of its current market value. Most of the drugs in the pipeline are capable of generating more than $1 billion in peak sales. J&J’s drug pipeline value can primarily be attributed to its oncology, anti-infective, and neuroscience drugs. We have created an interactive dashboard ~ How Much Is Johnson & Johnson’s Late Stage Pharmaceuticals Pipeline Worth? ~ which shows key factors determining the pipeline’s value such as expected peak sales, expected growth trajectory, and probability of market approval. You can modify these assumptions to see how it impacts the drug pipeline’s revenue forecast and valuation.

Oncology Probability-Adjusted Revenue Could Be North of $2 Billion

Oncology is one of the key pharmaceuticals portfolio for J&J with sales of over $7 billion in 2017, and we forecast this figure to double by the end of our forecast period, led by a ramp up in sales of existing drugs, Imbruvica, Darzalex, and Zytiga, and contribution from its new compounds. The company’s late stage oncology pipeline currently includes, 8 programs each for Darzalex and Imbruvica, along with new compounds, Apalutamide, Imetelstat, and Erdafitinib.

Apalutamide is used for the treatment of prostate cancer, and it was first approved by the U.S. FDA in February 2018, for non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Currently, there are three other extensions the drug is being tested for in phase 3 pipeline. The drug’s peak sales are estimated to be around $1.7 billion.

Erdafitinib is used for the treatment of urothelial cancer. J&J submitted its application seeking the U.S. FDA approval for Erdafitinib last week. The drug’s peak sales are expected to be north of $1 billion. Among new compounds, Niraparib received the approval for Ovarian cancer last year, and is currently being tested for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in phase 3 trials.

Anti-Infective Drugs Probability-Adjusted Revenues Could Be Around $2 Billion


Within Anti-Infective pipeline, J&J has vaccines, Lumicitabine, and Pimodivir in phase 3 trials. Lumicitabine is used for the treatment of acute respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections while Pimodivir is used for the treatment of Influenza. These drugs have a potential to generate $4 billion in peak sales.

Looking at the company’s Neuroscience pipeline, it consists of Esketamine, Ponesimod, and Seltorexant. Earlier this month, the company submitted Esketamine nasal spray application to the U.S. FDA for the treatment of resistant depression. Seltorexant is being developed by J&J and Minerva Neurosciences for the treatment of insomnia and major depressive disorder (MDD). These drugs peak sales are estimated to be north of $3.5 billion.

Overall, J&J’s late stage pipeline drugs could generate around $12 billion in peak sales. However, we consider 50% probability of the drugs being approved, which you can modify on our interactive dashboard, to arrive at around $6 billion of probability-adjusted revenues. After a strong run up in the past few years, J&J’s fast growing pharmaceuticals business has started to slow down, led by the loss of patent exclusivity for some of its blockbuster drugs, such as Remicade. Therefore, the company is banking on these late stage pipeline drugs to drive future growth.


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