Johnson Controls stock (NYSE: JCI) has seen an 8% fall in a month, compared to a 10% fall seen in the broader S&P500 index. There are a couple of factors behind this fall for JCI stock. Firstly, the rising interest rates and economic slowdown don’t bode well for building-related demand. Secondly, the company’s $0.27 cut in earnings guidance (at the mid-point of the range) for the full-fiscal 2022 due to supply chain disruptions didn’t sit well with the investors. These factors, clubbed with weakness in the broader markets, have weighed on JCI stock.
Now that JCI stock has seen a fall of 8% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of an increase in JCI stock over the next month. A move of -8% or more in a month for Johnson Controls has occurred 242 times in the past ten years. Of those instances, 155 resulted in Johnson Controls stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 155 of 242 or a 64% chance of a rise in JCI stock over the next month. See our analysis of Johnson Controls Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving -8% or more over five days, the stock rose on 50% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -1% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 59% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 64% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests an equal chance of a rise or a fall in JCI stock over the next five days but a higher chance of a rise over the next ten days and the next month.
Johnson Controls (JCI) Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: CMI highest at -2.0%; JCI lowest at -7.7%
- Ten-Day Return: TT highest at 1.6%; HON lowest at -4.4%
- Twenty-One Day Return: TT highest at -5.5%; HON lowest at -12.3%
While Johnson Controls stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how Johnson Controls Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised by how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Novanta vs. Abbott.
|S&P 500 Return||-4%||-20%||70%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-4%||-19%||220%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/21/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016