Will JetBlue’s FY 2019 Revenues Beat Consensus?

by Trefis Team
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JetBlue Airways
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JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ: JBLU) will release its full-year 2019 results on Thursday, January 23. Trefis details expectations from the airline company in an interactive dashboard, parts of which we highlight below. We believe that JetBlue Airways’ FY2019 revenues will beat market expectations, thanks to strong growth in passenger revenues. We expect JetBlue to report total revenues of $8.3 billion (vs. consensus estimate of $8.1 billion) and earnings of $1.91 (vs. consensus estimate of $1.90). Moreover, we estimate JetBlue Airways’ valuation to be $22 a share – roughly 15% above its current price of $19.

 

[1] JetBlue Airways’ Revenues  expected to beat consensus estimates

  • The company generates a bulk of its revenues from air ticket sales, which contribute nearly 98% of Passenger revenues.
  • Redemption of certain passenger loyalty rewards and other ancillary services such as baggage fees and on-board sales are also recognized as Passenger revenues.
  • In 2018, Passenger revenues observed a growth of 9%, primarily due to a 7% growth in capacity.
  • In the first three quarters of 2019, JetBlue’s available seat miles had increased by 7%, while other carriers faced capacity shortage.
  • We expect JetBlue’s total revenues to grow by 8.1% to $8.3 billion for the full-year 2019, supported by stable yield and occupancy levels.

[2] EPS expected to increase by 23% from $1.55 in 2018 to $1.91 in 2019, driven by lower fuel costs

  • After falling sharply in December 2018, crude oil prices have remained relatively stable at $60 a barrel in 2019.
  • As fuel expenses are nearly 20% of the operational costs for the company, lower fuel expenses have had a positive impact on the net income margin.
  • We expect the company’s EPS to have grown by 23% to $1.91 for full-year 2019.
  • Our valuation for JetBlue Airways’ stock stands at $22 per share, driven by an EPS of $1.91 and a P/E multiple of 11.8x

You can input your own estimates for the company’s key metrics and see how that will affect the company’s stock price in our interactive dashboard.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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