Will Intuitive Surgical Stock Continue To Make Fresh Highs?

by Trefis Team
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Intuitive Surgical
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The stock price of Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) has seen a rise of over 8% over the last twenty-one trading days, and it is also up a solid 51% over the last twelve month period. The recent rise can be attributed to the announcement of a 3-to-1 stock split. ISRG stock is now trading at its all-time high of around $1030. The stock appreciation is also backed by solid Q2 results it reported last month. The company’s sales grew a large 72%, driven by a 68% surge in procedure volume, while its earnings of $3.92 per share reflected a massive 3.5x y-o-y growth. While the Q2 2021 figures compare favorably with the prior year quarter, which saw fewer elective surgeries, amid the lockdowns, the company has guided for a solid 27-30% procedure volume growth for the full-year 2021.

But now that ISRG stock has moved to its all-time high levels past $1,000, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a good chance of a rise in ISRG stock over the next month. Out of 468 instances in the last ten years that ISRG stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 8% or more, 291 of them resulted in ISRG stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 291 out of 568, or about 61% chance of a rise in ISRG stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Intuitive Surgical Stock Chances of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 3.9% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 51% of the occasions.
  • After moving 5.5% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 51% of the occasions
  • After moving 8.2% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 62% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Stock Return: AI Predicts ISRG Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: ISRG highest at 3.9%; BDX lowest at -5.8%
  • Ten-Day Return: ISRG highest at 5.5%; BDX lowest at -4%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: ISRG highest at 8.2%; BDX lowest at -4%

While the historical performance suggests even higher levels are likely for ISRG stock, we continue to believe that it is richly valued. Our Intuitive Surgical Valuation of $953 is based on expected EPS of $13.91 and a 68x P/E multiple, reflecting a discount of around 7% to the current market price of $1030.

Going by historical performance, while ISRG stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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