What To Expect From Intuitive Surgical’s Q1?

by Trefis Team
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Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), a fast growing medical devices company, is scheduled to report its Q1 2021 results on Tuesday, April 20. We expect Intuitive Surgical to likely beat the revenue and earnings expectations, driven by a strong rebound in total procedure volume. We expect the company to navigate well based on these trends over the latest quarter.

Furthermore, our forecast indicates that Intuitive Surgical’s valuation is around $870 per share, which is 8% higher than the current market price of around $805. Our interactive dashboard analysis on Intuitive Surgical Pre-Earnings has additional details.

(1) Revenues expected to beat the consensus estimates

Trefis estimates Intuitive Surgical’s Q1 2021 revenues to be around $1.2 Bil, slightly ahead of the $1.1 Bil consensus estimate. While a deferment of elective surgeries last year impacted the overall revenue growth in Q1 2020, the ongoing vaccination programs and gradual opening up of economies has resulted in increase in procedures volume over the recent months, and this should augur well for Intuitive Surgical’s top line growth. The company’s Q4 2020 sales were up 4% to $1.3 billion, driven by higher instruments & accessories sales, while the system revenues declined due to fewer placements. Our dashboard on Intuitive Surgical Revenues offers more details on the company’s segments.

2) EPS also likely to be ahead of consensus estimates

Intuitive Surgical’s Q1 2021 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $2.72 per Trefis analysis, over 3% above the consensus estimate of $2.63. Intuitive Surgical’s adjusted net income of $434 million in Q4 2020 reflected a 4% rise from its $417 million figure in the prior-year quarter. The decline in earnings was in-line with that of revenues, as margins remained stable. That said, the margins will likely improve going forward, as the procedure volume increases. For the full-year 2021, we expect the adjusted EPS to be higher at $12.90 compared to $10.14 in 2020.

(3) Stock price estimate higher than the current market price

Going by our Intuitive Surgical’s Valuation, with an EPS estimate of around $12.90 and a P/E multiple of around 67x in 2021, this translates into a price of $870, which is 8% above the current market price of around $805. Investors have assigned a high trading multiple for ISRG stock, given the strong revenue and earnings growth over the past years, and this trend is expected to continue going forward as well. Note that Intuitive Surgical generates recurring revenues from every system placed, driven by the instruments and accessories sales, as well as services. At the current price of $805, ISRG stock is trading at 62x its 2021 earnings, as compared to levels of over 80x seen as recently as late 2020.

Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year

While ISRG stock may see gains going forward, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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