What’s Next For Ionis Pharmaceuticals Stock After A 14% Fall?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Ionis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IONS), a biotech company that specializes in discovering and developing RNA-targeted therapeutics, plunged 14% in yesterday’s trade to its five year low levels of $30, while it is down 19% over the last one month. The recent decline can be attributed to negative data around Tofersen – an experimental drug being jointly developed by Ionis and Biogen for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). [1] The drug failed to reach its primary goal in late stage clinical trials, and this didn’t sit well with the investors, resulting in a sharp decline for IONS stock in yesterday’s trade. Note that earlier this year, IONS stock tumbled after Roche decided to halt clinical trials of Tominersen – which was being developed by Ionis and Roche to treat Huntington’s disease.

Now, is IONS stock poised to see lower levels or is a rise imminent? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a higher chance of a rise in IONS stock in the near term. See our analysis on Ionis Pharmaceuticals Stock Return for more details.

1D: IONS -14%, vs. S&P500 0.3%; Underperformed market

(Extremely rare event)

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals stock dropped 14% on 10/18/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.3%
  • A change of -14% or more over one trading day is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 4 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years.

10D: IONS -6.4%, vs. S&P500 4.3%; Underperformed market

(24% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals stock declined 6.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.3%
  • A change of -6.4% or more over ten trading days is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 602 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 602 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 322 occasions
    This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

21D: IONS -19%, vs. S&P500 1.3%; Underperformed market
(8% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals stock declined 19% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.3%
  • A change of -19% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 193 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 193 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 120 occasions
    This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that IONS stock will see a rebound. Also, Ionis Pharmaceuticals Stock Return summarizes IONS stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.
While IONS stock may see a rebound, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Johnson & Johnson vs. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.

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Notes:
  1. Biogen Press Release, Oct 17, 2021 []
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