What’s Next For Intel Stock After 8% Slip In One Month?

by Trefis Team
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Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) has seen a drop of almost 8% over the past month and currently trades at around $53 per share. The drop was aggravated by Intel’s recent Q2 2021 earnings announcement, where revenue came in lower at $19.6 billion, down marginally from $19.7 billion in Q2 2020. Operating expenses dropped at roughly the same rate, with operating income coming in at $5.55 billion, down from $5.7 billion for the same period last year. However, a lower effective tax rate and a drop in the outstanding share count somewhat supported net income, and EPS rose to $1.25 from $1.20 over this period.

Now, after an 8% fall in a month, will INTC stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a recovery in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for INTC stock average close to 2.9% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 7.5% drop over the previous one-month (21 trading days) period. The stock has a decent 63.1% probability of rising 3% over the next one month. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding INTC stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning to test Intel stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF Intel stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, Intel stock moves an average of 2.3 percent, with an average 52.7% probability of a positive return.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Intel Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Intel stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Consider two situations,

Case 1: Intel stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Intel stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Intel stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

Intel stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.3% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.9% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Intel stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold Intel stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For Intel stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Intel stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.

 

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