Hartford Heads For $18 With Propery & Casualty Focus

by Trefis Team
Hartford Financial
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The Hartford Financial Services Group’s (NYSE:HIG) earnings for the second quarter of 2012 were a mixed bag as the company goes through transitional. Hartford reported net losses of $101 million, dominated by $587 million loss from debt-retirement charges. These charges were related to the replacement of debt it owed to German insurer Allianz on securities sold during the period of financial crisis.  ((The Hartford Financial Services Group Management Discusses Q2 2012 Results – Earnings Call Transcript, Seeking Alpha, 2nd August, 2012))

Core earnings from earned premiums and fees fell 6% year-on-year to $4.51 billion, an expected decline as the company continues to divest non-core businesses while focusing on property and casualty, group and mutual-funds operations. The insurer entered an agreement with industry peers AIG (NYSE:AIG) for the sale of its broker-dealer business, Woodbury Financial Services [1] and also unveiled plans to divest its retirement and life insurance divisions. We discuss below a few metrics that influence our $18 valuation of Hartford Financial’s stock.

See our full analysis of Hartford Financial here

Focus on Property and Casualty

The property and casualty division is the primary bread-winner for Hartford, accounting for 35% of the company’s revenues. Catastrophe losses fell sharply from the last year when the insurer was hit hard by storm losses and litigation costs relating to asbestos lawsuits. Total catastrophe losses for the quarter were $189 million after-tax, a 35% drop from $290 million loss reported last year. This drop along with improved pricing and underwriting by Hartford helped the P&C commercial division on its way to a 26% increase in net income for the second quarter.

New auto and homeowners insurance saw a 17% rise in written premium as the company’s increased focus in these areas coincided with improving trends in the industry. Leaving the worst of the recession behind, the housing market in the U.S. has shown signs of a resurrection in the past few months. A continued improvement in the industry will be beneficial for Hartford which seeks to offset low yields from bonds and stocks through investments in higher yielding mortgage loans.

We believe that the P&C division, which accounts 43% of Hartford’s stock value, will continue to be profitable as it receives increased attention in the future.

Divestiture On Track

Hartford recently sold its individual annuities new business capabilities to Forethought Financial Group, Inc., a Houston based financial services company, and has also announced plans to exit the life insurance business. [2] In-line with the exit strategy, the company shut down the variable annuities business in the U.S. Hartford is not the only insurer to take a prudent stand on equity-linked products as MetLife (NYSE:MET) has also cut back on variable annuity sales.

Although the company has revealed plans to sell its retirement division, we still project a slight growth on its performance in the first half of the year. We will keep a close eye on the progress of the divestiture and will update our model once the deal is complete and the terms are disclosed.

Our $18 price estimate of Hartford Financial’s stock is about 10% above the current market price. You can gauge the effect of a change in the forecast by modifying the interactive charts above.

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  1. AIG Buying Hartford Financial Brokerage Unit , Wall Street Journal, 31st July, 2012 []
  2. The Hartford Signs Agreement To Sell Individual Annuity New Business Capabilities, Press Release, April 26th, 2012 []
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