What’s Next For Helen Of Troy Stock After Weak Post-Earnings Performance?

HELE: Helen of Troy logo
HELE
Helen of Troy

Helen of Troy Limited stock (NASDAQ: HELE) is down 7.5% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down around 2% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned -7.8%, underperforming the broader market, again. Helen of Troy had reported weak Q3 ’22 earnings earlier this month, with revenue dropping from $638 million in Q3 ’21 to $625 million in Q3 ’22. Further, with COGS rising over this period, operating income dropped at a faster rate from $101 million in Q3 ’21 to $90 million in Q3 ’22. Finally, a rise in the interest expense outweighed a drop in the effective tax rate, and EPS pulled back from $3.37 to $3.14 over this period. The drop in the stock’s price since has been a reaction to this poor earnings performance.

Now, is HELE stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a decent 61% chance of a rise in Helen of Troy stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on HELE Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about HELE historical returns and comparison to peers, see Helen of Troy (HELE) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about HELE revenues and comparison to peers, see Helen of Troy (HELE) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: HELE -7.5%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • HELE stock dropped 7.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.1%
  • A change of -7.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 233 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
  • Of these 233 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 143 occasions
  • This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: HELE -7.8%, vs. S&P500 -4.4%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • HELE stock dropped 7.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.4%
  • A change of -7.8% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 99 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 99 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 60 occasions
  • This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: HELE 0.2%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Outperformed market

(55% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)

  • HELE stock rose a marginal 0.2% over a five-day trading period ending 1/18/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.9%
  • A change of 0.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 55% likelihood event, which has occurred 1387 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1387 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 732 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 HELE Return -7% -7% 169%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -3% 108%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -8% -8% 261%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/19/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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