What’s Next For HCA Healthcare Stock After A 21% Rise In A Month?


The stock price of HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA) has seen a 21% rise over the last twenty-one trading days, while it has doubled over the last year. Much of this 21% rise move in a month, actually came just over the last week, after the company announced an upbeat quarterly performance. HCA reported a sharp 30% jump in total revenue to $14.4 billion, higher than $13.6 billion consensus estimates. Furthermore, the company’s bottom-line of $4.36 per share was well above the consensus estimates of $3.16. This strong performance from the company can be attributed to a solid rebound in healthcare demand, especially compared to the prior-year quarter, which was impacted from lockdowns and wide-spread impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus. The company also revised its full-year outlook upward, aiding its overall stock appreciation.

However, now that HCA stock has seen a rise of 21% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there remains a higher chance of a rise in HCA stock over the next monthOut of 72 instances in the last ten years that HCA stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 21% or more, 44 of them resulted in HCA stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 44 out of 72, or about 61% chance of a rise in HCA stock over the coming month. See our analysis on HCA Stock Chances of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 13% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 53% of the occasions.
  • After moving 14% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 74% of the occasions
  • After moving 21% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 61% of the occasions.
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Predict average return on HCA (HCA) Stock Return: AI Predicts HCA Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

HCA (HCA) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500

  • Five-Day Return: HCA highest at 13%; DVA lowest at 1%
  • Ten-Day Return: HCA highest at 14%; DVA lowest at -1.2%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: HCA highest at 21%; SEM lowest at -0.6%

While HCA stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Zoetis vs Regeneron

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