Trefis expects Gap’s (NYSE:GPS) Old Navy stores & Internet revenue per square foot to increase from levels of around $384 in 2020 to $442 in 2021 and $451 in 2022.
Although the metric saw a decline in 2020, due to the Covid-19 related lockdowns, the number should pickup in 2021 as the economy continues to re-open. We expect longer-term growth to be driven by the growth of the online business, omnichannel retailing, and expansion in international markets.
We think the ongoing recovery is largely priced into Gap stock, which remains up by roughly 60% year-to-date. We value Gap at about $32 per share, slightly ahead of the $31 market price.
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