Is Google’s Stock Cheap With Q4 Earnings Nearby?

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Alphabet

Alphabet (Google)’s stock (NASDAQ: GOOG) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2021 results on Tuesday, February 1. We expect GOOG to beat the consensus estimates for revenues and earnings. The company has reported better than expected revenues and earnings figures in each of the last four quarters. In the first nine months of the year the company’s revenue growth was led by the YouTube Ads segment and Google Cloud segment. Google Search continued to see a steady growth. We expect the same to drive the fourth-quarter FY2021 results, as well. Our forecast indicates that Google’s valuation is around $3173 per share, which is 25% above the current market price of $2585. Look at our interactive dashboard analysis on Google’s earnings preview: What To Expect in Q4? for more details. 

(1) Revenues expected to be ahead of consensus estimates 

Google’s revenues for full-year 2020 were $182.5 billion – up 13% y-o-y, with high growth seen due to growth in YouTube Ads segment and Google Cloud segment. Trefis estimates GOOG’s fiscal Q4 2021 revenues to be around $69.87 billion, above the $69.5 billion consensus estimate. We expect the YouTube Ads segment and Google Cloud segment to continue to drive results. Our dashboard on Google’s revenues offers more details on the company’s operating segments along with our forecast for the next two years.

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(2) EPS likely to be ahead of the consensus estimates

GOOG’s Q4 2021 earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $29.41 per Trefis analysis, above the consensus estimate of $27.41. The company’s net income margin rose slightly in 2020 and is expected to continue growing in 2021. Altogether, the company is likely to report an EPS of around $111.60 in FY2021.

(3) Stock price estimate 25% above the current market price

Going by our Google’s valuation, an EPS estimate of around $121.78 in FY 2022 and a P/E multiple of 26.1x, translates into a price of $3173, which is 25% above the current market price of $2585.

Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year

While Google’s stock may rise, there are companies which look like a Better Bet than Google. Check out how Google Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 GOOG Return -11% -11% 235%
 S&P 500 Return -9% -9% 94%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -14% -14% 240%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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