Gold and Silver Outlook for September 26th

by Lior Cohen
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Submitted by Trading NRG as part of our contributors program.

The prices of precious metals have changed direction and rallied yesterday after they had declined for three consecutive business days. Their rally coincided with the rally of the Euro/USD and the drop of U.S stock markets. In the U.S, new orders of manufactured durable goods inched up by 0.1% to reach $224.9 billion. Was the recent recovery of gold and silver driven by change in fundamental estimates or short term speculations? Today’s U.S reports might shed some light on this question. If the upcoming reports don’t meet expectations or even disappoint, gold and silver might continue their recovery. On today’s agenda: Euro Area Monetary Development, GB Current Account, Final U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate, U.S. Jobless Claims, and U.S Pending Home Sales.

On Wednesday, gold changed direction and sharply rose by 1.51% to $1,335; Silver also increased by 1.39% to $21.84. During September, gold decreased by 4.29%; silver, by 6.98%. In the chart below are the normalized rates of precious metals for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of August 30th). The prices of gold and silver have mostly declined during the month.

Final U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate: In the recent estimate the U.S GDP rose by 2.5% in the second quarter of 2013. If in the last estimate, the growth rate for the second quarter is substantially revised, this could affect not only the US dollar but also precious metals;

U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: In the latest report the jobless claims rose by 15k to 294k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently precious metals;

U.S. Pending Home Sales: This reportshows the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S for August; in the recent report, the pending home sales index dropped by 1.3% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the developments in U.S’s housing market; if the housing data shows additional fall in sales, it may pull back the U.S dollar;

For further reading:

Gold and Silver Outlook for September

Gold and Silver Weekly Forecast for September 23-27

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 23-27

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