Fortinet Inc. Stock Set For Rally, After Weak Post-Earnings Performance?

FTNT: Fortinet logo
FTNT
Fortinet

Fortinet Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FTNT) is down 18% in the past week (five trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500, which was down 2.6% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned -14% and -8.5%, performing worse than the broader markets on both occasions. FTNT announced Q3 ’22 earnings last week, with revenue around $1.15 billion, higher than $867 million in Q3 ’21. Additionally, with COGS and operating expenses in check, operating margins rose from 19.2% to 23.1% over this period. Finally, despite a rise in the effective tax rate, net income rose and EPS came in higher at $0.29, compared to $0.20 in Q3 ’21. However, despite this. the stock dropped due to the company’s weaker-than-expected Q4 outlook.

Now, is FTNT stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 62% chance of a rise in FTNT stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on FTNT Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Fortinet (FTNT) Stock Return. 

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Twenty-One Day: FTNT -8.5%, vs. S&P500 3.7%; Underperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • FTNT stock dropped 8.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.7%
  • A change of -8.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 337 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 337 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 210 occasions
  • This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: FTNT -14%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • FTNT stock dropped 14% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.7%
  • A change of -14% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 62 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 62 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 37 occasions
  • This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: FTNT -18%, vs. S&P500 -2.6%; Underperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

  • FTNT stock lost 18% over a five-day trading period ending 11/4/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 2.6% over this period.
  • A change of -18% or more over five trading days (one week) is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 8 times out of 2518 in the last 10 years.
  • Of these 8 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 4 occasions.
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 FTNT Return -16% -33% 697%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -20% 70%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -4% -26% 195%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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