Can Fortinet Stock Recover From Post-Earnings Slide?

Fortinet Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FTNT) is down 11% in the past week (five trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500 which was up 0.5% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned -13% and -15%, performing much worse than the broader markets. Fortinet’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $801 million in Q2 ’21 to $1.03 billion in Q2 ’22. Additionally, with COGS and other operating expenses not rising as quickly, the company reported operating margins of 18.9%, up from 18.4% for the same period last year. This helped boost the company’s net income and EPS came in higher at $0.22, compared to $0.17 in Q2 ’21. Despite strong earnings and the markets recovering over the past couple of weeks, Fortinet stock has slipped, on the back of weak Q3 ’22 revenue guidance causing strong investor selling post-earnings.

Now, is Fortinet stock set to continue falling or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 71% chance of a rise in FTNT stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on FTNT Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Fortinet (FTNT) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about FTNT revenue and comparison to peers, see Fortinet (FTNT) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: FTNT -15%, vs. S&P500 6.3%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 71% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• FTNT stock lost 15% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 6.3%
• A change of -15% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 128 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 128 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 91 occasions
• This points to a 71% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: FTNT -13%, vs. S&P500 4.4%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• FTNT stock lost 13% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.4%
• A change of -13% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 93 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 93 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 51 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: FTNT -11%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next five days)

• FTNT stock lost 11% over a five-day trading period ending 8/8/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 0.5% over this period.
• A change of -11% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 67 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 67 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 44 occasions
• This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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