Down 10% Last Month, Can Fortinet Stock Recover Anytime Soon?

Fortinet Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FTNT) is down almost 10% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down a little over 5% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has lost -7.9% and -9.4% respectively, underperforming the broader markets on both occasions. Fortinet’s most recent FY ’21 earnings saw revenue rise to $3.34 billion, up from $2.59 billion in FY ’20. However, a faster rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating margins drop marginally from 20.5% to 19.5%. However, a lower effective tax rate boosted net income, and EPS rose from $2.98 to $3.72 over this period, further being supported by a marginal drop in the outstanding share count.

Now, is FTNT stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is an average 58% chance of a rise in FTNT stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on FTNT Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Fortinet (FTNT) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about FTNT revenue and comparison to peers, see Fortinet (FTNT) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: FTNT -9.4%, vs. S&P500 -5.4%; Underperformed market

(12% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• FTNT stock dropped 9.4% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 5.4%
• A change of -9.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 305 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 305 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 178 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: FTNT -9.4%, vs. S&P500 -4.8%; Underperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• FTNT stock lost 9.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.8%
• A change of -9.4% or more over ten trading days is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 199 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 199 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 117 occasions
• This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: FTNT -7.9%, vs. S&P500 -2.7%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next five days)

• FTNT stock lost 7.9% over a five-day trading period ending 4/22/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down almost 3% over this period.
• A change of -7.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 128 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 128 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 80 occasions
• This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/25/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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