What’s Next For First Solar Stock After Dismal Performance Last Month?
First Solar stock (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down almost 4% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was up a little over 1%. If you look at the change over the last ten days too, the stock has returned -6.8%, underperforming the broader market. However, in the past week the stock returned 2.4%, beating the S&P that was down 2.3% over this period. First Solar reported dismal Q3 ’21 earnings earlier this month with revenue at $584 million, down significantly from $928 million in Q3 ’20. While solar modules sales rose by $140 million over this period, solar power systems sales dropped $460 million. Additionally, with COGS and other operating expenses dropping at a much slower rate, operating income slumped from $207 million to $51 million over this period. However, a significantly lower effective tax rate somewhat supported earnings, with EPS falling from $1.46 in Q3 ’20 to $0.43 in Q3 ’21, a drop less than that in operating income.
Now, is First Solar stock set to continue its downward slump or could we expect a recovery? We believe that there is an average 52% chance of a rise in FSLR stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on FSLR Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about FSLR historical returns and comparison to peers, see First Solar (FSLR) Stock Return.
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- First Solar Stock Has Returned 2x More Than The S&P Since 2017, Despite Dropping Sales
- Rising Investor Expectations Have Enabled First Solar Stock To Outperform The S&P
Twenty-One Day: FSLR -3.9%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Underperformed market
(35% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- FSLR stock dropped 3.9% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
- A change of -3.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 872 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 872 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 453 occasions
- This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: FSLR -6.8%, vs. S&P500 -1%; Underperformed market
(20% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- FSLR stock dropped 6.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1%
- A change of -6.8% or more over ten trading days is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 509 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 509 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 270 occasions
- This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: FSLR 2.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Outperformed market
(38% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)
- FSLR stock rose 2.4% over a five-day trading period ending 11/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.3%
- A change of 2.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 953 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 953 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 470 occasions
- This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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|S&P 500 Return||1%||24%||107%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||-3%||46%||297%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/29/2021
 Cumulative total returns since 2017
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