What’s Next For Flowserve Stock After A 21% Fall In A Month?

FLS: Flowserve logo

Flowserve stock (NYSE: FLS), a manufacturer of pumps and valves, has seen a 21% fall in a month, underperforming the broader S&P500 index, down 10%. The fall for Flowserve, in particular, can be attributed to its recent press release stating an $0.18 to $0.22 impact on its Q3 EPS due to specific issues. The company implemented a new enterprise resource planning system (ERP) system in Q3, but due to some challenges, while implementing the new system, volumes were adversely impacted. Furthermore, a rise in corporate expenses is also expected to weigh on Q3 earnings. This update did not sit well with the investors, evident from the stock price correction.

Now that FLS stock has seen a fall of 21% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of an increase in FLS stock over the next month. A move of -21% or more in a month for Flowserve has occurred 27 times in the past ten years. Of those instances, 22 resulted in Flowserve stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 22 of 27 or an 81% chance of a rise in FLS stock over the next month. See our analysis of Flowserve Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving -14% or more over five days, the stock rose on 50% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving -10% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 53% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving -21% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 81% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a marginally higher chance of a rise in FLS stock over the next five days and ten days and a much higher chance of an increase over the next month.

Flowserve Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: AQUA highest at -1.8%; FLS lowest at -13.6%
  • Ten-Day Return: HAYW highest at 4.5%; FLS lowest at -10.5%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: AQUA highest at -8.7%; FLS lowest at -21.1%

While Flowserve stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how Flowserve’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

With higher inflation and rising interest rates, among other factors, FLS stock has seen a fall of 10% this year. Can it drop more? See how low Flowserve stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised by how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for CSX vs. Amkor.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Sep 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 FLS Return -9% -10% -42%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -19% 73%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -2% -18% 226%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/20/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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