Up Around 20% In A Month, Will FedEx Stock Continue To See Higher Levels?

FDX: FedEx logo

FedEx stock (NYSE: FDX) has risen a solid 19% in a month, outperforming the broader markets with the S&P500 down 1%. The recent rally in FDX stock was led by its positive outlook for fiscal 2023. FedEx reported its Q4 results last week with revenue of $24.4 billion, reflecting 8% y-o-y growth and earnings of $6.87 on a per share and adjusted basis, compared to $5.01 in the prior-year quarter. This performance compares with the top-line forecast of $24.5 billion and the bottom-line forecast of $6.86 per the consensus estimates. What went well for FDX stock was its 50 bps operating margin expansion and the solid outlook of $23.50 EPS for fiscal 2023 (at the mid-point of its range), implying a 14% y-o-y growth compared to the consensus estimate of 9% growth.

Now that FDX stock has seen a rise of 19% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a very high chance of a rise for FDX stock over the next month. Of 59 instances in the last ten years that FDX stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 19% or more, 53 resulted in FDX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 53 out of 59, or about a 90% chance of a rise in FDX stock over the next month. See our analysis of FedEx Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving 8% or more over five days, the stock rose on 57% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving 12% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 65% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving 19% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 90% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
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  5. Will FedEx Stock See Higher Levels After A Mixed Q2?
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This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in FDX stock over the next five days, the next ten days, and the next month.

FedEx (FDX) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: AMZN highest at 12.6%; CHRW lowest at 2.7%
  • Ten-Day Return: FDX highest at 12.1%; XPO lowest at -3.9%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: FDX highest at 18.9%; EXPD lowest at -4.6%

While FDX stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for FedEx vs. Amkor.

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, FedEx has fallen 6% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can FedEx stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

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