Will Freeport-McMoRan Stock Rise Further After Jumping 60% In Three Months?

FCX: Freeport logo

Freeport-McMoRan stock (NYSE: FCX) increased 62% in the last 3 months and currently trades at $34 per share. The rise in stock price was mainly driven by a sharp recovery in copper prices. Most importantly, the gold and copper production and shipments from the company’s Indonesian operations are expected to register sharp growth in 2021, with the Grasberg transition nearing an end. This is likely to lead to a significant rise in revenue and earnings in the near term, which has enthused the company’s investors. But will FCX’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks and months, or is a correction in the stock more likely?

According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last 20 years, returns for FCX stock average close to 23% in the next three-month (63 trading days) period after experiencing a 62% rise over the previous three-month (63 trading days) period. Notably, though, the stock is likely to outperform the S&P500 over the next three months, with an expected return which would be 18% higher compared to the S&P 500.

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding FCX stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning to test FCX tock chances of a rise after a fall and vice-versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!

Relevant Articles
  1. Will Freeport Stock Fall Further?
  2. With Copper Prices Falling, What’s Next For Freeport Stock?
  3. Why did Freeport-McMoRan Stock Lose 30% In Value?
  4. Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock A Buy?
  5. How Has Resistance In Copper Prices Impacted Freeport-McMoRan Stock?
  6. Amidst Strong Rally In Copper Price, Will Freeport-McMoRan Stock Continue To Shine?

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF FCX stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, FCX stock moves an average of 1.4 percent, which implies a return which is almost similar to that of the S&P 500.

More importantly, there is 50% probability of a positive return over the next 21 trading days and 48% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over five trading days.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of FCX Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Freeport stock higher after a drop?


Consider two situations,

Case 1: Freeport stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Freeport stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Freeport stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

FCX stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 10.6% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 13.9% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Freeport stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?


If you buy and hold Freeport stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For FCX stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?


The average return after a rise is generally lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although FCX stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

FCX’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P 500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Freeport stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

While Freeport-McMoRan stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how how the stock valuation for Compass Minerals vs Southwest Gas shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.


See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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