Ford Stock Trades Lower Before Q2 Earnings?

by Trefis Team
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Ford’s stock (NYSE: F), declined by 1.2% to $14 in the last five trading days before the Q2 earnings release expected on Wednesday, July 28. In comparison, the broader S&P500 declined by 0.2% over the last five trading days. Now, will the company continue a downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a rise in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using multiple years of historical stock data, returns for F’s stock average around 0.8% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 1.2% decline in a week (five trading days). But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding F stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Ford stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF F stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, F stock moves an average of 1.9% with a 52.3% probability of a positive return over this period.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Ford Stock Movements

Question 1: Is the average return for Ford stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Case 1: Ford stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Ford stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Ford stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

F stock fares about the same in both Cases, with an average return of 1.9% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.9% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Ford stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold Ford stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For F stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Ford after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.

F’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Ford stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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