How Much Can China Success Add To Ford’s Bottom Line?

+23.18%
Upside
12.03
Market
14.82
Trefis
F: Ford Motor logo
F
Ford Motor

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is a global leader in the pick-up truck and commercial van market. According to the company, it leads the global pick-up truck market in terms of unit sales with its F-series pick-up trucks and the European and U.S. commercial vans market with Ford Transit, with the Ford Ranger positioned third in the same market. While Ford sells over 6 million units of vehicles each year, an outsize proportion of its profits is contributed by the sales of these three vehicles.

The company is vying for a leading position in the commercial vehicles market in the world’s biggest car market China as well. This is highly important for the company as commercial truck sales are extremely profitable and have extremely loyal customers. The table below estimates the potential increase to Ford’s stock price if it can assume the leading position in the Chinese market with these three vehicles as well. The table below models a scenario in which the market share of Ford in the SUVs and trucks market increases from 2.95% in 2016 to around 4.0% in 2020. The impact of this increase is clearly visible in the EPS estimate, which increases from 93 cents in 2016 to around $ 1.66 in 2020, an increase of close to 70%.

ford china impact

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Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com

2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for Ford Motor

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