Expedia’s stock (NASDAQ: EXPE), a travel company providing everything from airline tickets, hotel rooms, car rentals, to cruises, has increased 13% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands near $181. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a 5% growth during the same period. Expedia benefited from mass vaccinations and has noticed encouraging trends in booking rates in the countries where vaccine distribution is being organized successfully. But still, the travel sector has been only recovering in fits and starts due to waves of the pandemic drifting around for the majority of 2021. The latest emergence of the omicron variant has again mounted fears of another wave of the pandemic. This could likely lead to new international travel restrictions, negatively impacting the broader economic recovery. However, early signs that the Covid-19 variant may be causing milder symptoms than previous strains could provide a sigh of relief to the travel companies. Although it’s still too soon to tell for sure.
In the recent Q3, Expedia’s revenues almost grew two times year-over-year (y-o-y) to $3 billion. Our Expedia Revenues dashboard provides more insight into the companies’ revenues. Also, EXPE’s net income and adjusted EBITDA nearly matched Q3 2019 levels driven by Vrbo and domestic travel improvements. However, booking trends for lodging, air, and other travel products all declined sequentially from the second quarter of 2021 largely due to the impact of the Covid Delta variant.
If you are considering EXPE stock as an investment option over a longer time frame, you can explore our forecast for Expedia’s Valuation dashboard.
Now, is EXPE stock poised to grow further in the short term? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in EXPE stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Expedia Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last 10 year data
 Returns of -0.5% or lower over five-day period in 885 times out of 2515 (35%); Stock rose in the next five days in 521 of these 885 instances (59%)
 Returns of 15% or higher over ten-day period in 85 times out of 2515 (3%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 44 of these 85 instances (52%)
 Returns of 13% or higher over twenty-one-day period in 271 times out of 2515 (11%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 147 of these 271 instances (54%)
Also, Expedia Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.
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|S&P 500 Return||5%||27%||113%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||2%||47%||297%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/31/2021
 Cumulative total returns since 2017