Is Expedia Stock Still A Buy?

by Trefis Team
+12.12%
Upside
164
Market
184
Trefis
EXPE
Expedia
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Expedia’s stock, (NASDAQ:EXPE), a travel company providing everything from airline tickets, hotel rooms, car rentals, to cruises, has declined only marginally over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at roughly $173. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a marginal growth during the same period. Now, is EXPE stock poised to decline further? We believe the company remains fundamentally undervalued and there could be room for gains in the stock going forward. Specifically, there is a 68% chance of a rise in Expedia’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Expedia Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Twenty-One Days: EXPE -0.2%, vs. S&P500 0.9%; Underperformed market (37% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next twenty-one days)

  • Expedia stock declined 0.2% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.9%
  • A change of -0.2% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 37% likelihood event, which has occurred 942 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 942 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 640 occasions
  • This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten-Days: EXPE -0.2%, vs. S&P500 0.9%; Underperformed market (42% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next ten days)

  • Expedia stock declined 0.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.9%
  • A change of -0.2% or more over ten trading days is a 42% likelihood event, which has occurred 1061 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1061 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 675 occasions
  • This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five-Days: EXPE -1.4%, vs. S&P500 0.4%; Underperformed market (35% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 5 days)

  • Expedia stock declined 1.4% over a five-day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.4%
  • A change of -1.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 877 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 877 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 519 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

It is helpful to see how peers stack up.  See EXPE Stock Comparison With Peers for how Expedia compares against peers on metrics that matter.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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