Etsy Stock Jumped 17% Last Week, Where Is It Headed?

Etsy stock (NASDAQ: ETSY) has gained 17% in the last week, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (up 1.1%). Further, the trend was observed over the last ten days (23% vs 3.2%) and one month (60% vs 8.5%).

The company offers an online marketplace for unique and creative goods. Its stock price has witnessed a positive momentum after the third quarter results, as it surpassed the consensus estimates and provided strong guidance for revenues and gross merchandise value (GMV) in Q4. In addition, the price bounced last week after BTIG analyst Marvin Fong gave bullish comments about the stock. He suggested that the shoppers’ browsing activity on the platform has increased (based on the data collected by his firm). 

Now, is Etsy stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a greater than 90% chance of a rise in Etsy stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last eight years. See our analysis on Etsy Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: ETSY 60%, vs. S&P500 8.5%; Outperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 93% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Etsy stock jumped 60% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 8.5%
• A change of 60% or more over twenty-one trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 14 times out of 1903 in the last eight years
• Of these 14 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 13 occasions
• This points to a 93% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ETSY 23%, vs. S&P500 3.2%; Outperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• Etsy stock increased 23% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.2%
• A change of 23% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 100 times out of 1914 in the last eight years
• Of these 100 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 56 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ETSY 17%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next five days)

• Etsy stock gained 17% over a five-day trading period ending 12/02/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 1.1%
• A change of 16% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 90 times out of 1919 in the last eight years
• Of these 90 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 43 occasions
• This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how Etsy Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/5/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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