Etsy Stock Lost 4% In One Week, Where Is It Headed?

ETSY: Etsy logo
ETSY
Etsy

Etsy stock (NASDAQ: ETSY) has lost 4% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.1%). However, the trend was quite the opposite over the last ten days (16% vs 3.9%) and one month (14% vs 5.4%).

The company offers an online marketplace for unique and creative goods. It posted better-than-expected results in the third quarter of 2022 and provided strong revenue guidance for Q4. This led to price appreciation over the one-month and ten day period. However, it suffered over the last week due to the selling of shares by the company insiders. Further, Evercore added the stock to its “Tactical Underperform” list. 

Now, is Etsy stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 49% chance of a rise in Etsy stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last eight years. See our analysis on Etsy Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: ETSY 14%, vs. S&P500 5.4%; Outperformed market

(22% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Etsy stock gained 14% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 5.4%
  • A change of 14% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 416 times out of 1895 in the last eight years
  • Of these 416 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 205 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ETSY 16%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Outperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Etsy stock increased 16% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.9%
  • A change of 16% or more over ten trading days is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 194 times out of 1906 in the last eight years
  • Of these 194 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 95 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ETSY -4%, vs. S&P500 -0.1%; Underperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Etsy stock lost 4% over a five-day trading period ending 11/21/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 0.1%
  • A change of 4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 473 times out of 1911 in the last eight years
  • Of these 473 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 255 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how Etsy Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 ETSY Return 22% -48% 876%
 S&P 500 Return 2% -17% 76%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 2% -21% 213%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/22/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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