Etsy stock (NASDAQ: ETSY) has gained 5.6% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 1.7%). However, the trend was quite the opposite over the last ten days (-2.8% vs 0.2%) and one month (-10% vs 4.7%).
The company offers an online marketplace for unique and creative goods. It published the third-quarter results last week, which surpassed the consensus estimates. The top line improved 12% y-o-y to $594.5 million, driven by a 12% growth in the marketplace division and a 10% increase in services revenues. While the marketplace segment benefited from higher seller transaction fees, the services revenues were primarily up due to higher on-site advertising income. Further, the firm provided revenue guidance of $700-$780 million for Q4, in-line with the street expectations. Overall, the earnings beat and strong revenue outlook were the main reason behind the stock movement.
Now, is Etsy stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 59% chance of a rise in Etsy stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last eight years. See our analysis on Etsy Stock Chance of Rise.
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Twenty-One Day: ETSY -10%, vs. S&P500 4.7%; Underperformed market
(21% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- Etsy stock lost 10% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 4.7%
- A change of -10% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 399 times out of 1885 in the last eight years
- Of these 399 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 234 occasions
- This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: ETSY -2.8%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Underperformed market
(34% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- Etsy stock decreased 2.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 0.2%
- A change of -2.8% or more over ten trading days is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 646 times out of 1896 in the last eight years
- Of these 646 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 369 occasions
- This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: ETSY 5.6%, vs. S&P500 -1.7%; Outperformed market
(22% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)
- Etsy stock gained 5.6% over a five-day trading period ending 11/07/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 1.7%
- A change of 5.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 424 times out of 1901 in the last eight years
- Of these 424 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 215 occasions
- This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
|S&P 500 Return||-2%||-20%||70%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-3%||-25%||197%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/8/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016