Etsy Stock Topped The Consensus In Q2, What’s Next?

ETSY: Etsy logo
ETSY
Etsy

Etsy stock (NASDAQ: ETSY) has gained 12% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 4.4%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (19% vs 4%) and one month (31% vs 7%).

The company offers an online marketplace for unique and creative goods. It released the second-quarter results last week, outperforming the consensus estimates of revenues and earnings. Despite the tough macroeconomic outlook, the total revenues increased 11% y-o-y to $585.1 million. It was driven by an 11% growth in the marketplace segment and a 9% rise in services revenues. The marketplace segment primarily benefited from an increase in the seller transaction fee, partially offset by lower gross merchandise sales (GMS). Further, the key metrics – active buyers and active sellers, witnessed a 4% and 41.5% growth on a year-on-year basis. That said, the firm’s net income reduced 26% y-o-y to $73 million, mainly due to higher product development costs. Overall, the better-than-expected earnings were the main reason behind positive investor sentiment toward the stock.

Now, is ETSY stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 57% chance of a rise in Etsy stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last seven years. See our analysis on Etsy Stock Chance of Rise

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Twenty-One Day: ETSY 31%, vs. S&P500 7%; Outperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Etsy stock gained 31% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 7%
  • A change of 31% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 131 times out of 1816 in the last seven years
  • Of these 131 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 75 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ETSY 19%, vs. S&P500 4%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Etsy stock increased 19% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 4%
  • A change of 19% or more over ten trading days is a 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 145 times out of 1827 in the last seven years
  • Of these 145 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 70 occasions
  • This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ETSY 12%, vs. S&P500 4.4%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Etsy stock gained 12% over a five-day trading period ending 08/02/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 4.4%
  • A change of 12% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 157 times out of 1832 in the last seven years
  • Of these 157 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 82 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how Etsy Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 ETSY Return 1% -52% 787%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -15% 82%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -13% 242%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/3/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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