Etsy stock (NASDAQ: ETSY) has gained 12% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 6.2%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (6.3% vs -0.3%) and one month (13% vs -2.2%).
The company offers an online marketplace for unique and creative goods. Its stock witnessed a significant rally post the March 2020 drop, similar to its peers like Amazon and Shopify. However, the stock has lost 63% YTD due to factors like record-high inflation numbers, aggressive rate hikes by the Fed, geopolitical tensions, and growth in offline retail sales. Further, the current macroeconomic scenario is likely to impact consumer spending levels negatively. That said, the market is still expecting Etsy to deliver around 9% y-o-y growth in total revenues to $2.53 billion (consensus estimates) in FY2022. It is because the company has a loyal customer base (both buyers and sellers) due to the unique goods available on the platform and user-friendly technology.
Now, is ETSY stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 51% chance of a rise in Etsy stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last seven years. See our analysis on Etsy Stock Chance of Rise.
We estimate Etsy‘s valuation to be around $170 per share which is 53% above the current market price.
Twenty-One Day: ETSY 13%, vs. S&P500 -2.2%; Outperformed market
(23% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- Etsy stock gained 13% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.2%
- A change of 13% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 420 times out of 1791 in the last seven years
- Of these 420 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 213 occasions
- This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: ETSY 6.3%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market
(30% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- Etsy stock increased 6.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 0.3%
- A change of 6.3% or more over ten trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 548 times out of 1802 in the last seven years
- Of these 548 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 276 occasions
- This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: ETSY 12%, vs. S&P500 6.2%; Outperformed market
(8% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)
- Etsy stock gained 12% over a five-day trading period ending 06/27/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 6.2%
- A change of 12% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 152 times out of 1807 in the last seven years
- Of these 152 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 79 occasions
- This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
|S&P 500 Return||-6%||-18%||74%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-3%||-22%||207%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/28/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016