Down 13% Last Month, Does Ericsson Stock Look Set To Bounce?
Ericsson stock (NASDAQ: ERIC) is down around 13% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500, which was down 5% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned 0.2%, performing worse than the broader markets. Ericsson’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $4.94 billion in Q2 ’21 to $5.62 billion in Q2 ’22. Additionally, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a slower rate, and EBIT margin rose from 10.6% to 11.7% over this period. Due to this, net income rose and EPS came in higher at $0.12 in Q2 ’22, against $0.10 in Q2 ’21.
Now, is ERIC stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a decent 54% chance of a rise in ERIC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on ERIC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Ericsson (ERIC) Stock Return.
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- Can Ericsson Recover From Its 9.2% Drop Over The Past Two Weeks?
- Forecast Of The Day: Ericsson Managed Services Revenue
- Ericsson Stock Looks Unlikely To Sustain Its Earnings Driven Outperformance
Twenty-One Day: ERIC -13%, vs. S&P500 -5%; Underperformed market
(4% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- ERIC stock lost 13% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 5%
- A change of -13% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 94 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 94 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 51 occasions
- This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: ERIC 0.2%, vs. S&P500 1%; Underperformed market
(52% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- ERIC stock gained a marginal 0.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1%
- A change of 0.2% or more over ten trading days is a 52% likelihood event, which has occurred 1313 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 1313 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 623 occasions
- This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: ERIC 8.6%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Outperformed market
(2% likelihood event; 36% probability of rise over next five days)
- ERIC stock gained 8.6% over a five-day trading period ending 10/5/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 4.2% over this period.
- A change of 8.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 55 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 55 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 20 occasions
- This points to a 36% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
| Returns | Oct 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 YTD [1] |
2017-22 Total [2] |
| ERIC Return | 8% | -43% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 5% | -21% | 68% |
| Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio | 7% | -21% | 212% |
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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